The number that keeps falling
The University of Michigan's final September index of consumer sentiment came in at 48.1, down from 51.7 in August and 12.7% below a year ago. It is the lowest reading in four months and roughly 15% below where sentiment stood in January.
The index of consumer expectations, which tracks how households feel about the future, fell to 46.3 — a 10.1% drop in a single month. Views of current economic conditions slipped to 50.9.
Fuel prices and trade disputes
Consumers pointed to high prices, especially for fuel, and to re-escalating trade disputes. Oil markets have swung hard all year as the war with Iran disrupted production and cargo shipping through the Gulf, and those costs work their way into petrol, freight charges and eventually shelf prices.
The survey found the gloom cut across party lines. Sentiment among Republican respondents is about 20% lower than in January, while sentiment among Democrats is down 13% over the same period. That is unusual: political affiliation normally buffers confidence when a respondent's party holds the White House.
What it signals for spending
Falling sentiment does not automatically mean falling spending, and the survey's detail was mixed. Buying conditions for durable goods improved slightly, in part because some households think waiting will mean paying more later.
The short-run outlook for business conditions dropped sharply, with respondents worried that elevated fuel prices and trade frictions will pass through to the wider economy.
For retailers, logistics operators and warehouse teams, the pressure shows up twice: in the cost of moving goods and in shoppers who trade down to cheaper baskets. Freight and handling costs are hard to cut once a container is booked, which is why operators keep looking for cheaper ways to move loads through distribution centres without adding labour.
Economists watch this survey less for what it predicts about next quarter's GDP than for the direction of travel. Sentiment has now fallen for months, and the drop has been sharpest among households that describe their finances as strained.
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