Where the numbers stand
El Nino conditions have strengthened in the central Pacific. Weekly relative Oceanic Nino Index values reached 2C on 14 September, meeting the threshold for a very strong event, and daily sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region hit 3C on 15 September. That has happened only once before since modern records began in 1950, during the 2014 to 2016 event.
NOAA now puts the chance of reaching historic strength between October and December at about 75%, and the Climate Prediction Center gives roughly a 70% chance this becomes the strongest event since 1950. If it holds, it would pass the 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016 events.
What a record event means
El Nino tends to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and boost storm activity in the eastern and central Pacific. NOAA cited the very strong El Nino as the main driver of a below-average Atlantic hurricane season forecast this year. Forecasters caution that a record-strong event does not guarantee worse impacts in every place El Nino usually touches, because local weather patterns still shift from month to month.
El Nino also lifts the global average temperature, riding on top of the long-term warming trend. Because of the strength of this event, 2027 is close to certain to set a record for the hottest year measured, and 2026 may do so as well.
Not the only factor
The strongest super El Nino on record remains the 1877 to 1878 event, which was linked to famines that killed more than 50 million people. Modern forecasting and food systems are far better prepared, but the comparison shows how much global weather can change when the Pacific runs hot. Governments in the Pacific rim, Australia, Peru and parts of Africa are already watching rainfall and drought signals for the months ahead.